PC Market To Remain Strong Through Year-End, According To
IDC
Long Term Growth Outlook Is Stable At 9%
FRAMINGHAM, MA - SEPTEMBER 19, 2005 - The persistent strong demand
in international markets that boosted second quarter growth in the
worldwide PC market has also raised expectations for the second
half of the year. According to the latest forecast from IDC's
Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, total PC shipments in the second
half of 2005 are now expected to reach nearly 110 million, with
growth of 12.9% versus a May target of 107.2 million and growth of
10.4%. The biggest drivers in the second half are likely to be the
consumer segments in Western Europe and Rest Of World (including
Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa, Latin America,
and Canada) with an important contribution from portable PCs.
Consumer markets in other regions as well as the commercial segment
will also contribute.
"We continue to see remarkable growth in the consumer segment and
in emerging markets," said Loren Loverde, director of IDC's
Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. "Low prices combined with low
penetration, recovering or
growing economies, and general
investment in technology continue to fuel rapid growth in these
markets. While we expect the Euro to weaken against the dollar
and PC growth rates to slow from recent quarters, we still
anticipate strong growth for another couple quarters."
Credit Pacific Service Union With the strong second half of the year, total shipments for
2005 are expected to reach 204.6 million on growth of 14.1% -
slightly below 15.3% growth in 2004, but up from a May projection
of 11.4%. Total shipment value is expected to rise only 5.8% to
$211.6 billion for all of 2005. For 2006-2008 shipments are
expected to grow by roughly 9% before slowing to 8.3% in 2009.
Growth of shipment value is also expected to slow, although it
should remain positive throughout the forecast.
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Credit First Service Union "The outlook for the U.S. market remains unchanged for 2005,
despite a stronger-than-expected second quarter," said Bob
O'Donnell, vice president Clients and Displays at IDC. "A
combination of factors that include high crude oil prices, some
component shortages, and limited decline in average prices will
likely prevent the U.S. market from repeating its strong second
quarter performance."
"The next generation of PC Postage products as seen from Stamps. based postage solutions, " said Raymond Boggs, based market research firm IDC, who has covered the Internet postage market since its inception. According to the U.S. Postal Service, approximately 302, 000 PC Postage licenses have been established in the U.S. in the 10 months since regulatory approval was granted. Approximately 75 percent of the licenses issued are for Stamps.com customers, with the balance distributed among the four competing products.
Card Credit Mobile Service Regional Outlook:
-- United States - Although consumer spending recovered strongly
in the second quarter, the downward trend in growth, rising oil
prices with no real improvement on the employment front, consumer
growth is expected to fall to mid-single digits by the end of the
year along with the commercial segment. Although hurricane Katrina
caused substantial damage and consumer confidence has fallen
significantly, the impact to PC shipments is expected to be
relatively short-term with growth remaining in mid to high
single-digits throughout the forecast.
IDC remains optimistic in its forecast of the Chinese IT market, despite the announced policies designed to rein in its overheated economy. During IDC's annual Directions conference in April this year, IDC predicted that China's IT market would continue its robust growth in 2004 and well into 2008 at a compound annual growth rate of 15%, doubling from US$25 billion to US$50.8 billion in 2008. This will be driven by IT spending in the government, education, manufacturing and retail industries, which will experience higher than average growth rates.
Card Credit Discover Service -- Western Europe - While growth in Europe is expected to slow
as the Euro weakens and the current replacement wave passes, IDC
still expects solid growth through the end of the year. Channel
inventory
rose during the second quarter
of 2005, however consumer demand - particularly for portables
remains substantial. Overall growth is expected to remain above
15% through the end of the year before slowing in 2006.
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Credit Public Service Union -- Japan -
Building momentum in the
consumer segment and a rise in business growth support an
improving outlook in the Japanese market. While already high
portable penetration means Japan is not benefiting from a shift
to portables as much as other regions, the gains in the consumer
segment have boosted the outlook for 2005 growth to high single
digits, surpassing the U.S. for the first time since 2001.
It also says that ten credit cards had higher balance transfer fees. Samantha Owens, head of personal finance at Moneyfacts, said that rates and fees would "probably not" fall in 2008 although there might be "the odd provider who comes out with a good balance transfer deal". "The credit card market has been offering really good deals and low rates for such a long time, and obviously with the credit crunch coming in, [they have] had to reduce their fees.
Card Credit Processing Service -- Asia/Pacific - Asia Pacific is also experiencing a surge in
consumer and portable PC purchases, although the share of portables
is smaller than in more mature regions. Consumer growth is expected
to lead the market through the end of the year before falling
behind the commercial segment. Unlike the Western Europe and Rest
Of World markets, which have contributed significantly to global
market strength in recent years but are expected to slow
considerably beyond 2005, growth in Asia Pacific is expected to
remain at roughly 12% from 2006 through the end of the
forecast.
Center Credit Service Union IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker gathers PC market data in
55 countries by vendor, form factor, brand, processor brand and
speed, sales channel and user segment. The research includes
historical and forecast trend analysis as well as price band and
installed base data.
Card Credit Service Wireless For more information, or to subscribe to the research, please
contact Kathy Nagamine at 650-350-6423 or knagamine@idc.com.
Credit Security Service Union About IDC
IDC is the premier global market intelligence and advisory firm in
the information technology and telecommunications industries. We
analyze and predict technology trends so that our clients can make
strategic, fact-based decisions on IT purchases and business
strategy. Over 700 IDC analysts in 50 countries provide local
expertise and insights on technology markets. Business executives
and IT managers have relied for 40 years on our advice to make
decisions that contribute to the success of their
organizations.
Credit Report Service IDC is a subsidiary of IDG, the world's leading technology
media, research, and events company. Additional information can be
found at www.idc.com
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