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Credit First Service Union (AXcess News) Sterling VA - Last month, Dr. Chang Gyu Hwang, CEO of Samsung's semiconductor business, hailed his company's 16-GB NAND Flash card as the harbinger that will eventually replace hard drive storage in CE devices, notebooks, and desktop PCs. In a press conference in Seoul, South Korea, he said that "NAND Flash will eventually replace other storage mediums, especially those used in mobile products, creating a Flash Rush.'"

However, although Samsung has announced its NAND Flash memory in 16-GB capacities, the company won't begin producing it in volume until the second half of 2006. Flash memory capacities are doubling each year, so we anticipate that 32-GB NAND Flash will be launched next year and 64-GB cards will follow the year after.

Is the hard drive market doomed?

Apple's recent announcement that its Flash-based iPod nano will replace its hard drive-based iPod mini sent shivers down hard drive manufacturers' spines. However, Current Analysis believes that while Flash may be a threat to the hard drive market in some CE segments, Samsung's insinuation that Flash will replace the entire hard drive market is unrealistic. The hard drive's existence in devices with small form factors, such as MP3 players, will continue to be threatened by Flash memory cards because Flash is gaining in storage capacity and dwindling in price, but the hard drive's storage role in devices with large storage needs, such as DVR devices and PCs, will remain strong.

Over the next few years, Flash will compete with sub-2-inch hard drives for share of the storage market. Flash uses less power, is more reliable, and has a smaller footprint than hard drives. And while Flash is more expensive than hard drives per gigabyte, the recent success of Flash-based MP3 players, particularly the Apple iPod shuffle, illustrates that consumers are willing to forego storage space for a slim design and long battery life. Therefore, in order to protect their share of the handheld CE device market, hard drive manufacturers will need to quickly introduce sub-2-inch hard drives that have larger capacities than those of today. If hard drive manufacturers can execute this plan quickly, they will increase their products' price-per-gigabyte advantage and protect a niche market of the handheld CE device space. Digital camcorders and the rumored iPod video are candidates for such a niche.

However, sub 2-inch drives are only a portion of the internal storage market. Notebooks, desktops, and DVRs all use internal hard drives as the main storage unit. While Flash manufacturers are hinting that Flash drives will grow to capacities fit for these systems as well, market trends show otherwise. As seen in the chart below, sales of 100-GB and 250-GB devices in the U.S. PC market have seen steady increases over the last two months. In addition, although not listed in the graphic below, 120-GB notebooks and 300-GB desktop systems are beginning to see life in the market.

Flash manufacturers will not be able to offer a 128-GB Flash drive until approximately 2007/2008. By that time, the hard drive market will have exponentially increased its capacity offerings with new technologies such as perpendicular magnetic recording (PMR). Seagate and Hitachi are both scheduled to introduce 2.5-inch notebook drives built with PMR. These large-capacity drives will answer consumers' demand for storage for their growing digital libraries and ensure a place for hard drives in the PC market.

However, Flash will play an auxiliary storage role in the PC market. Samsung has already announced that it is developing a hybrid drive that leverages the benefits of both traditional magnetic storage, which provides for high densities, and OneNAND Flash, which uses less power. Samsung's hybrid drive takes advantage of Flash's quick start-up and low power consumption to make its traditional magnetic storage less vola ti le and more efficient. Samsung, Hitachi , and Seagate will commercialize these drives in 2006.

So, will the hard drive market die? No. Although hard drive manufacturers will need to protect a niche segment of the handheld CE device market for their products, consumer devices that demand large storage capacities, such as notebook and desktop PCs, will ensure the technology's existence, even if that existence is in tandem with that of Flash.

Source: Current Analysis

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